SDA VIC Demand Report
Victoria
7 qualifying SA3 regions — where unhoused participants exceed total vacant rooms
Data current to 31 March 2026 · NDIA Supplement P Q3 2025–26 · publicproperty.com.au
Victoria overview
7
Qualifying SA3s
7,340
Funded participants
1,947
Not yet housed
3,805
Enrolled dwellings
2,947
Pipeline (SA4s)
SA4 Region
Bendigo
1 qualifying SA3  ·  sole — all pipeline lands here
172
Funded
56
Not yet housed
70
Dwellings
47
Vacant rooms
92
Pipeline
Pipeline mix — HPS 39 · FA 0 · IL 13 · Robust 30  |  16 apt · 33 house · 43 villa · 0 GH
1
Bendigo
Bendigo SA4
Bendigo 3550 · Strathdale 3550 · Kangaroo Flat 3555 · Eaglehawk 3556 · Golden Square 3555
Participants P.17 · P.15
56
Funded, not yet housed
78
participants in group/legacy homes
172
Total funded participants
Demand vs supply by design category P.18 · P.14
People who need thisRooms that existShortage / Surplus Rooms
HPS3179-48
FA3312+21
IL5630+26
Robust1640-24
Basic/Legacy—2—
Rooms estimated: dwellings × 2.3 avg rooms/dwelling. Basic/Legacy has no participant need.
Green (+) = undersupplied — more people than rooms — opportunity. Red (−) = oversupplied — more rooms than people — caution.
What housing exists right now P.15
TypeDwellingsRoomsVacant
1-resident333310
2-resident8165
3-resident123610
4+ resident (group home)177822
Total7016347
New vs older housing P.13 · P.15
45
New build dwellings (post-2016, NDIS compliant)
17
Legacy/group home dwellings
78 participants in group/legacy homes
NDIA payment SDA Pricing 2025–26 v2.0
0.85x
Location factor
$65,673
HPS per participant/yr
$197,019
HPS per dwelling (3 res)/yr*
The formula
Funded, not yet housed56
Total rooms (all dwellings)163
Currently housed− 116
Vacant rooms47
Source: P.17, P.15
Shortage / Surplus
9
participants with
nowhere to go
+78
participants in
group/legacy homes
SA4 Region
Melbourne - Inner
1 qualifying SA3  ·  sole — all pipeline lands here
73
Funded
25
Not yet housed
64
Dwellings
18
Vacant rooms
157
Pipeline
Pipeline mix — HPS 148 · FA 1 · IL 8 · Robust 0  |  106 apt · 37 house · 14 villa · 0 GH
2
Melbourne City
Melbourne - Inner SA4
Melbourne 3000 · Southbank 3006 · Docklands 3008 · Carlton 3053 · East Melbourne 3002
Participants P.17 · P.15
25
Funded, not yet housed
0
participants in group/legacy homes
73
Total funded participants
Demand vs supply by design category P.18 · P.14
People who need thisRooms that existShortage / Surplus Rooms
HPS2964-35
FA310+31
IL51+4
Robust01-1
Basic/Legacy—0—
Rooms estimated: dwellings × 1.0 avg rooms/dwelling. Basic/Legacy has no participant need.
Green (+) = undersupplied — more people than rooms — opportunity. Red (−) = oversupplied — more rooms than people — caution.
What housing exists right now P.15
TypeDwellingsRoomsVacant
1-resident636317
3-resident131
Total646618
New vs older housing P.13 · P.15
62
New build dwellings (post-2016, NDIS compliant)
0
Legacy/group home dwellings
NDIA payment SDA Pricing 2025–26 v2.0
1.37x
Location factor
$97,791
HPS per participant/yr
$293,373
HPS per dwelling (3 res)/yr*
The formula
Funded, not yet housed25
Total rooms (all dwellings)66
Currently housed− 48
Vacant rooms18
Source: P.17, P.15
Shortage / Surplus
7
participants with
nowhere to go
SA4 Region
Melbourne - Outer East
1 qualifying SA3  ·  sole — all pipeline lands here
175
Funded
39
Not yet housed
54
Dwellings
33
Vacant rooms
65
Pipeline
Pipeline mix — HPS 47 · FA 5 · IL 3 · Robust 10  |  0 apt · 52 house · 12 villa · 1 GH
3
Yarra Ranges
Melbourne - Outer East SA4
Lilydale 3140 · Mount Evelyn 3796 · Healesville 3777 · Belgrave 3160 · Yarra Glen 3775
Participants P.17 · P.15
39
Funded, not yet housed
114
participants in group/legacy homes
175
Total funded participants
Demand vs supply by design category P.18 · P.14
People who need thisRooms that existShortage / Surplus Rooms
HPS189+9
FA1756-39
IL5722+35
Robust1334-21
Basic/Legacy—44—
Rooms estimated: dwellings × 3.1 avg rooms/dwelling. Basic/Legacy has no participant need.
Green (+) = undersupplied — more people than rooms — opportunity. Red (−) = oversupplied — more rooms than people — caution.
What housing exists right now P.15
TypeDwellingsRoomsVacant
1-resident13133
2-resident6122
3-resident10306
4+ resident (group home)2511422
Total5416933
New vs older housing P.13 · P.15
19
New build dwellings (post-2016, NDIS compliant)
27
Legacy/group home dwellings
114 participants in group/legacy homes
NDIA payment SDA Pricing 2025–26 v2.0
0.88x
Location factor
$67,526
HPS per participant/yr
$202,578
HPS per dwelling (3 res)/yr*
The formula
Funded, not yet housed39
Total rooms (all dwellings)169
Currently housed− 136
Vacant rooms33
Source: P.17, P.15
Shortage / Surplus
6
participants with
nowhere to go
+114
participants in
group/legacy homes
SA4 Region
Melbourne - South East
1 qualifying SA3  ·  sole — all pipeline lands here
98
Funded
39
Not yet housed
49
Dwellings
34
Vacant rooms
495
Pipeline
Pipeline mix — HPS 328 · FA 4 · IL 55 · Robust 106  |  97 apt · 328 house · 68 villa · 2 GH
4
Casey - North
Melbourne - South East SA4
Berwick 3806 · Narre Warren 3805 · Narre Warren North 3804 · Harkaway 3806
Participants P.17 · P.15
39
Funded, not yet housed
38
participants in group/legacy homes
98
Total funded participants
Demand vs supply by design category P.18 · P.14
People who need thisRooms that existShortage / Surplus Rooms
HPS2225-3
FA182+16
IL2915+14
Robust1049-39
Basic/Legacy—2—
Rooms estimated: dwellings × 1.9 avg rooms/dwelling. Basic/Legacy has no participant need.
Green (+) = undersupplied — more people than rooms — opportunity. Red (−) = oversupplied — more rooms than people — caution.
What housing exists right now P.15
TypeDwellingsRoomsVacant
1-resident323212
2-resident483
3-resident5155
4+ resident (group home)83814
Total499334
New vs older housing P.13 · P.15
33
New build dwellings (post-2016, NDIS compliant)
8
Legacy/group home dwellings
38 participants in group/legacy homes
NDIA payment SDA Pricing 2025–26 v2.0
0.92x
Location factor
$69,996
HPS per participant/yr
$209,988
HPS per dwelling (3 res)/yr*
The formula
Funded, not yet housed39
Total rooms (all dwellings)93
Currently housed− 59
Vacant rooms34
Source: P.17, P.15
Shortage / Surplus
5
participants with
nowhere to go
+38
participants in
group/legacy homes
SA4 Region
Melbourne - Inner East
1 qualifying SA3  ·  sole — all pipeline lands here
212
Funded
40
Not yet housed
68
Dwellings
35
Vacant rooms
67
Pipeline
Pipeline mix — HPS 42 · FA 10 · IL 14 · Robust 1  |  60 apt · 6 house · 1 villa · 0 GH
5
Whitehorse - West
Melbourne - Inner East SA4
Box Hill 3128 · Mont Albert 3127 · Surrey Hills 3127 · Balwyn North 3104
Participants P.17 · P.15
40
Funded, not yet housed
156
participants in group/legacy homes
212
Total funded participants
Demand vs supply by design category P.18 · P.14
People who need thisRooms that existShortage / Surplus Rooms
HPS4670-24
FA3546-11
IL5937+22
Robust821-13
Basic/Legacy—33—
Rooms estimated: dwellings × 3.0 avg rooms/dwelling. Basic/Legacy has no participant need.
Green (+) = undersupplied — more people than rooms — opportunity. Red (−) = oversupplied — more rooms than people — caution.
What housing exists right now P.15
TypeDwellingsRoomsVacant
1-resident27275
2-resident361
3-resident6183
4+ resident (group home)3215626
Total6820735
New vs older housing P.13 · P.15
25
New build dwellings (post-2016, NDIS compliant)
37
Legacy/group home dwellings
156 participants in group/legacy homes
NDIA payment SDA Pricing 2025–26 v2.0
1.16x
Location factor
$84,820
HPS per participant/yr
$254,460
HPS per dwelling (3 res)/yr*
The formula
Funded, not yet housed40
Total rooms (all dwellings)207
Currently housed− 172
Vacant rooms35
Source: P.17, P.15
Shortage / Surplus
5
participants with
nowhere to go
+156
participants in
group/legacy homes
SA4 Region
Warrnambool and South West
1 qualifying SA3  ·  sole — all pipeline lands here
88
Funded
29
Not yet housed
33
Dwellings
26
Vacant rooms
43
Pipeline
Pipeline mix — HPS 31 · FA 0 · IL 2 · Robust 9  |  8 apt · 18 house · 17 villa · 0 GH
6
Warrnambool
Warrnambool and South West SA4
Warrnambool 3280 · Dennington 3280 · Allansford 3277 · Koroit 3282
Participants P.17 · P.15
29
Funded, not yet housed
51
participants in group/legacy homes
88
Total funded participants
Demand vs supply by design category P.18 · P.14
People who need thisRooms that existShortage / Surplus Rooms
HPS1341-28
FA165+11
IL3010+20
Robust415-11
Basic/Legacy—13—
Rooms estimated: dwellings × 2.6 avg rooms/dwelling. Basic/Legacy has no participant need.
Green (+) = undersupplied — more people than rooms — opportunity. Red (−) = oversupplied — more rooms than people — caution.
What housing exists right now P.15
TypeDwellingsRoomsVacant
1-resident14144
2-resident482
3-resident4124
4+ resident (group home)115116
Total338526
New vs older housing P.13 · P.15
20
New build dwellings (post-2016, NDIS compliant)
11
Legacy/group home dwellings
51 participants in group/legacy homes
NDIA payment SDA Pricing 2025–26 v2.0
0.85x
Location factor
$65,673
HPS per participant/yr
$197,019
HPS per dwelling (3 res)/yr*
The formula
Funded, not yet housed29
Total rooms (all dwellings)85
Currently housed− 59
Vacant rooms26
Source: P.17, P.15
Shortage / Surplus
3
participants with
nowhere to go
+51
participants in
group/legacy homes
SA4 Region
Hume
1 qualifying SA3  ·  sole — all pipeline lands here
84
Funded
29
Not yet housed
30
Dwellings
27
Vacant rooms
20
Pipeline
Pipeline mix — HPS 12 · FA 1 · IL 1 · Robust 4  |  0 apt · 14 house · 5 villa · 1 GH
7
Wodonga - Alpine
Hume SA4
Wodonga 3690 · Albury 2640 · Beechworth 3747 · Falls Creek 3699
Participants P.17 · P.15
29
Funded, not yet housed
40
participants in group/legacy homes
84
Total funded participants
Demand vs supply by design category P.18 · P.14
People who need thisRooms that existShortage / Surplus Rooms
HPS714-7
FA1011-1
IL2516+9
Robust35-2
Basic/Legacy—36—
Rooms estimated: dwellings × 2.7 avg rooms/dwelling. Basic/Legacy has no participant need.
Green (+) = undersupplied — more people than rooms — opportunity. Red (−) = oversupplied — more rooms than people — caution.
What housing exists right now P.15
TypeDwellingsRoomsVacant
1-resident441
2-resident163211
3-resident262
4+ resident (group home)84013
Total308227
New vs older housing P.13 · P.15
2
New build dwellings (post-2016, NDIS compliant)
9
Legacy/group home dwellings
40 participants in group/legacy homes
NDIA payment SDA Pricing 2025–26 v2.0
0.84x
Location factor
$65,055
HPS per participant/yr
$195,165
HPS per dwelling (3 res)/yr*
The formula
Funded, not yet housed29
Total rooms (all dwellings)82
Currently housed− 55
Vacant rooms27
Source: P.17, P.15
Shortage / Surplus
2
participants with
nowhere to go
+40
participants in
group/legacy homes
Note on SDA payment figures*
Maximum annual SDA payment under NDIA SDA Pricing Arrangements 2025–26. Assumes new-build, 3-resident HPS dwelling at full occupancy, with OOA, fire sprinklers, MRRC and location factor applied. Actual income depends on occupancy, participant plan funding, and provider agreement. This is the published price cap — not guaranteed income. An empty dwelling earns nothing.
Methodology

Shortage / Surplus = primary demand (P.17 "not yet housed") minus total vacant rooms (P.15 capacity minus P.17 housed). All dwelling types included.

Secondary demand = group home residents (4+ per dwelling). Shown separately — currently housed. Government intent is to defund legacy and group homes, but the NDIA has not published a transition timeline. Transition demand is context only, not confirmed near-term demand. Source: P.15.

Pipeline = SA4 context only, never subtracted. Source: P.8.

Qualifying: gap > 0, 50+ funded, 20+ unhoused. All data NDIA Supplement P Q3 2025–26.

Disclaimer

This report is generated from publicly available data published by the NDIA. All figures are indicative. Public Property Pty Ltd (ABN 21 656 016 830) accepts no liability for decisions made based on this report.

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